A VoxEU column has been published about our study on the effectiveness of connecting job seekers with online buddies.
Empirical labor economics and applied microeconomics
Paul Muller
Associate Professor at VU University Amsterdam, affiliated with Tinbergen Institute, IZA, and CEPR.
Research interests
My research interests are empirical labor economics and applied microeconomics. I have been using both field experiments and administrative data in my studies and have worked on topics such as:
- The role of occupational information in job search
- Job search assistance programs and their direct and indirect effects
- Family policies, such as parental leave and childcare subsidies, and labor market participation
- Disability insurance and the labor market
- Taxation and migration
In 2024 I received an NWO Vidi grant to study scarcity on the Dutch labour market. I am also a co-organizer of the Tinbergen Institute Labour Seminar Series.
News
Why do temporary workers in the Netherlands face higher disability insurance risks? Our paper has now been published in Labour Economics.
We have released a working paper containing the evaluation of an information intervention for job seekers in occupations with poor prospects in the Netherlands.
Together with Michele Belot and Philipp Kircher, we wrote a chapter for the Handbook on Labour Markets in Transition, called Navigating behavioral biases in job search: overview and digital solutions.
Can information about alternative occupations benefit long-term unemployed? Our paper has now been accepted for publication in the Economic Journal.
Our paper on the effect of tax incentives on migration in the Netherlands has been accepted for publication in the AEJ: Applied.
A UWV Kennisverslag has been published with the first results of our intervention to stimulate occupational mobility among unemployed job seekers in the Netherlands.
I have been awarded a Vidi grant by NWO, allowing me to study scarcity on the labour market for the coming 5 years.
Marc Witte, Nadine Ketel and I are organizing the Field Days workshop on field experiments in economics on October 17-18 in Amsterdam. See the call for papers.
New working paper out: online job search advice for long-termed unemployed in the UK.
Our paper on the importance of DI benefits during health recovery has been accepted for publication in Journal of Health Economics.
Our paper on how wage announcements affect job search has been conditionally accepted for publication in AEJ: Macro.
New discussion paper out on eliciting time preferences when consumption/income varies substantially.
With support from the Ministry of Finance, we have started a project evaluating the impacts of the 30% tax rule for immigrants in the Netherlands.
New Discussion Paper available on the work resumption of DI applicants.
Our paper on the impact of reminders for increasing physical exercising has been accepted for publication in Experimental Economics.
Our paper on comparing econometric methods for evaluating activation programs has been accepted for publication in Journal of Applied Econometrics.
Our paper on providing occupational advice to job seekers has been published in The Review of Economic Studies, with a summary on Microeconomic Insights.
A column on our wage-posting experiment can be found here.
Working paper now available for our study on behavioral hurdles to exercising at the gym.
Working paper now available for our experiment on wage posting and job search, with a column on VoxEU.
Our paper on equilibrium effects of job search is now accessible in the Journal of Labor Economics.
I am presenting in the Bristol Workshop on Economic Policy Interventions and Behaviour.
Presenting on wage announcements and job search in the GEW series in Gothenburg.
New IZA discussion paper available on comparing econometric evaluation methods.
Published papers
Research
2026
Do the Long-term Unemployed Benefit from Automated Occupational Advice during Online Job Search?
Economic Journal, Volume 136, Issue 673, January 2026, Pages 184-206
We insert occupational suggestions into an online job search platform, that is provided to long-term unemployed by a private job search assistance provider. Evaluation through an RCT shows positive impacts on job finding and occupational mobility.
2025
Why do temporary workers have higher disability insurance risks?
Labour Economics, Volume 96, October 2025
Temporary workers have higher disability risks than permanent workers. We show that in the Netherlands this is not explained by selection or higher risk of illness in temporary jobs. Instead, the difference arises during sickness, as a result of lower employer commitment and lack of labour market opportunities.
2025
Navigating behavioral biases in job search: overview and digital solutions
Chapter in Handbook on Labour Markets in Transition, edited by Stéphane Carcillo and Stefano Scarpetta
We review empirical evidence on behavioral biases in job search and discuss research on online interventions to overcome such biases.
2025
Tax incentives for migrants with mid-level earnings: evidence from the Netherlands
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 17 (3): 42-79, July 2025
Migrants moving to the Netherlands for employment enjoy a substantial tax exemption. We show that the exemption strongly increased arriving migrants over the past decade.
2025
Eliciting time preferences when income and consumption vary: Theory, validation & application to job search
American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, 17(1), February 2025
We propose a novel method to elicit time preferences that is robust to cases where background consumption and income vary. We validate the method in a field experiment, and show an application using job seekers.
2022
How wage announcements affect job search - a field experiment
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 14(4), 2022
By assigning random wages to pairs of otherwise similar job ads, we show that job seekers respond to perceived competition: higher wages attract more interest, but some job seekers prefer the lower wage job.
2022
Do Disability Benefits Hinder Work Resumption After Recovery?
Journal of Health Economics, Volume 82, March 2022
We consider the outflow rates from disability insurance: by estimating the response to health recovery we show that awarded DI applicants return to work substantially less than rejected DI applicants.
2021
Experimental evidence of limited attention at the gym
Experimental Economics, 24, 2021
Using a randomized field experiment, we show that email reminders positively affect members' gym visits. Using detailed booking / canceling data for gym classes, we explore how planning for future gym visits is affected.
2020
Comparing econometric methods to empirically evaluate activation programs for job seekers
Journal of Applied Econometrics, Volume 35, Issue 5, August 2020
We compare three distinct econometric techniques for estimating the impact of privately provided job search assistance in the Netherlands. We find that exploiting non-experimental variation in program participation leads to results that are qualitatively similar to those from evaluating a natural experiment.
2019
Providing advice to job seekers at low cost: An experimental study on online advice
The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 86, Issue 4, July 2019
We develop and evaluate experimentally an online tool that provides occupational advice based on labor market data to job seekers. We find that the advice affects participants' job search strategies and improves prospects of job interviews for a subset.
2018
Estimating equilibrium effects of job search assistance
Journal of Labor Economics, vol. 36, No. 4, October 2018
Using data from a Danish field experiment, we show that job search assistance programs may have unintended consequences, by reducing job prospects for job seekers that do not participate.
2015
Childcare Subsidies and Labor Supply: Evidence from a Large Dutch Reform
Labour Economics, Volume 36, October 2015
Evaluating a large reform in the Netherlands in 2005, we show that higher childcare subsidies can increase labor supply of mothers with young children, although the effect is modest relative to the subsidy expenditures.
Current projects
Work in Progress
- Advising Job Seekers in Occupations with Poor Prospects: A Field Experiment, with Michèle Belot, Didier Fouarge, Bart de Koning, Philipp Kircher, and Sandra Phlippen. Discussion paper. Policy summary in Dutch in a UWV Kennisverslag and in English in a VoxEU column.
- Supporting occupational transitions through buddy-support, with Michèle Belot, Yvonne Engels, Didier Fouarge, Bart de Koning, Mario Keer, Philipp Kircher, and Sandra Phlippen.
- Gender gaps in wage bargaining, with Mark van der Meijden, Lisa Timm, and Massimo Giuliodori.
- Reference-dependence in job search, with Marco Fongoni and Bart de Koning.
- The Scarring Effect of Short-Lived Sickness Spells for Temporary Workers, with Jonathan Rossi, Pierre Koning, and Carlos Riumallo Herl.
Curriculum vitae
CV
The CV is linked from the original Google Drive file so future updates there remain accessible.